Nothing ignites a good NFL discussion quite like quarterbacks. And it makes sense: They’re the most important ingredient in a championship recipe. All signal-callers, of course, are at least partially a product of their situations, but that means their current standing can be a good barometer for a team’s Super Bowl hopes.
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With that in mind, this is how we’d sort today’s starting quarterbacks right now (with some short-term projection baked in). These rankings change as the season unfolds, as they’re based more on current standing than the bigger picture, built to tell the story of each quarterback’s respective rise and fall.
Despite their epic collapse last season, when they lost five of their final six regular-season games after getting off to a 10-1 start and were embarrassed by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the wild-card round of the playoffs, the Philadelphia Eagles were predicted by many to win the NFC East title for the second time in three years.
Meanwhile, the Washington Commanders weren’t expected to have much success after posting a 4-13 record in 2023, which marked the seventh consecutive season in which they failed to finish above the .500 mark.
Philadelphia (7-2) split its first two games this campaign but has lived up to expectations since. The team has registered five straight wins following its bye in Week 5, outscoring its opponents 147-65 in the process.
The Eagles boast one of the NFL’s top receiving duos in A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, both of whom amassed over 1,000 yards each of the last two seasons. However, the strength of Philadelphia’s offense in 2024 has been its rushing attack, which ranks second in the league with an average of 176.1 yards per contest.
The main reason for the club’s success on the ground has been Saquon Barkley, who signed a three-year, $37.75 million contract in March after spending the first six years of his NFL career with the division-rival New York Giants. Selected with the second overall pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, the 27-year-old out of Penn State, who eclipsed the 1,000-yard plateau three times with New York, is second in the league this campaign with 991 rushing yards – 29 more than he gained in 14 games with the Giants last year.
Barkley also is tied for eighth in the NFL with six touchdown runs, matching his 2023 total. But he is second on the Eagles in that category, as quarterback Jalen Hurts has racked up 10 rushing TDs, marking the fourth consecutive season he has reached double figures. He enters Week 11 just two behind league leader Derrick Henry of the Baltimore Ravens.
Philadelphia is sixth in the NFL in total offense (373.9 yards) and tied for seventh in scoring (25.9 points) after recording at least 20 points in every game during its current winning streak. The team has been particularly explosive over its last four contests, averaging 31.8 points.
The Eagles also have been strong on the other side of the ball this year. They are second in the league in total defense (274.1 yards allowed), third against the pass (173.4) and fifth against the run (100.7) while tying for fifth in points surrendered (17.9).
Even though it had one of the easiest schedules over the first 10 weeks, Washington arguably has been the biggest surprise of the 2024 NFL season. One of the reasons has been the performance of rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels, who was the second overall pick in this year’s draft.
The reigning Heisman Trophy winner is currently the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. He is tied for eighth in the league with a completion rate of 68.7% and has thrown for 2,147 yards and nine touchdowns with only two interceptions.
Daniels has formed a strong connection with wideout Terry McLaurin, who is on his way to a fifth consecutive 1,000-yard season. The 29-year-old Ohio State product is third in the NFL with 711 receiving yards and tied for fourth with six touchdown receptions.
The 23-year-old Daniels also has been dangerous with his legs. After rushing for 1,134 yards with LSU in 2023, he leads the Commanders in rushing with 464 yards – three more than Brian Robinson Jr., who shares eighth place in the league with six TD runs.
With Daniels under center, Washington ranks fourth in the NFL in total offense (377 yards) after finishing 24th (312.8) last season. The team also is fourth in rushing (153.5 yards) following a 27th-place effort (93.6) in 2023 and tied for third in scoring (29 points) compared to its 24th-place showing (19.4) last year.
Since the Dallas Cowboys dropped to 3-6 following their 34-6 home loss to Philadelphia last weekend and the Giants are floundering at 2-8, the Eagles and Commanders will battle it out for the NFC East title over the final eight weeks of the season. That stretch begins in Week 11 with a head-to-head showdown in Philadelphia on Thursday Night Football.
Both clubs are 2-0 in division play thus far, with Washington defeating New York twice and Philadelphia trouncing both the Giants and Cowboys. The Eagles have won five of their last six meetings with the Commanders franchise, including both last season.
Despite that recent history, and the fact it is one-half game behind Philadelphia after dropping a 28-27 decision to the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, Washington enters Thursday’s contest with a 58.6% chance to win the NFC East compared to SportsLine Projection Model’s 41.4% outlook for the Eagles.
The model, which simulates every NFL game 10,000 times and is up well over $7,000 for $100 players on top-rated NFL picks since its inception, says both teams likely will qualify for the playoffs, with the Commanders doing so 98.6% of the time and Philadelphia in 95.9% of its simulations.
Thursday’s outcome will go a long way toward determining a division champion, according to the model. A victory would increase Washington’s chances to 80.2% and Philadelphia’s to 60.5%, while a loss drops the Commanders’ likelihood to 36.2% and the Eagles’ to 17.8%.
Both teams could be without a key offensive weapon, as Robinson missed last week’s contest with a hamstring injury and was a limited participant for Washington in Wednesday’s practice, while Smith did not practice for the Eagles due to a similar ailment.
All hope would not be lost with a defeat, however, as the rivals meet again in Washington in Week 16. While a series sweep would put the chances for the NFC East title at 95.5% for the Commanders and 96.5% for the Eagles, a split puts them at 59.8% and 40.1%, respectively. Losing both matchups would be crippling, however, as the model has Washington winning the crown 3.5% of the time and gives Philadelphia a 4.4% chance in that event.
The model is calling for a close contest between the Commanders and Eagles on Thursday Night Football. But it isn’t one of the five games with A-grade picks based on model simulations for the 11th week of the season. You can find those top-tier Week 11 NFL picks at SportsLine.
PHILADELPHIA — No secrets were hidden when the Philadelphia Eagles were discussing Jayden Daniels. Every player that was asked about the Washington Commanders standout rookie came away impressed.
The one Eagles player that played with Daniels over the summer envisioned his success.
“We all knew he was going to be good,” said Jahan Dotson, who spent training camp catching passes from Daniels in Washington. “And I’m happy that he’s showing everyone how good he is.
“He’s a great player. He’s able to make a lot of plays. I feel like he’s one of the better quarterbacks in the league. He’s a tremendous talent. He has a good head on his shoulders and good leadership skills.”
Daniels has been a problem around the league through 10 games, having one of the best starts for any quarterback in league history. He’s the second quarterback since the 1970 merger with 200 pass yards per game and 45 rush yards per game in his first 10 career games (Robert Griffin III was the first) and the third-most rush yards by a quarterback (464) in his first 10 career games.
He’s completed 68.7% of his passes for 2,147 yards with nine touchdowns to two interceptions for a 101.7 passer rating, adding 464 rushing yards and four touchdowns. The Commanders are 7-3 and have scored on 58.3% of the drives, the second-highest rate since the merger.
“You definitely have to be cognizant of the fact that he moves well in the pocket,” Eagles pass rusher Jalyx Hunt said. “He’s an athletic quarterback so it’s something that we’ve noted and you have to rush accordingly for sure.”
Even though Daniels has been a force in his rookie season, the Pittsburgh Steelers did take away his dual-threat ability running the football. Daniels notched a season-low five yards rushing in Sunday’s loss, only the second time this season he was held to under 20 rushing yards.
“They just did a good job playing their techniques, playing their run and tackling,” Eagles linebacker Nakobe Dean said. “Pittsburgh always did a good job of handling running quarterbacks.”
So how do the Eagles make sure Daniels is contained?
“They rushed a lot of guys,” Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio said of Pittsburgh. “When I say a lot, they rushed five a good bit, or four. Pittsburgh is pretty good. You’ve got [Steelers LB T.J.] Watt and [Steelers LB Alex] Highsmith on the outside. They’re good guys. [Steelers DT Cameron] Heyward is still on the inside. They’re a good defense.
“Kudos to him for what he’s been able to achieve. Kudos to the coaches there that are coaching him because that’s not an easy offense to run. They do a lot of different things. He’s only thrown two interceptions, which is unreal, really. He’s done a great job.”
Daniels is the toughest assignment of the Eagles’ season. The players are aware of what’s in store Thursday night.
“I always thought that he was a great player,” Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts said. “Been able to win the Heisman, and all the success he’s had — even to this point.”
Minnesota Vikings rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy underwent a second knee surgery this week as he continues working his way back from a torn meniscus. McCarthy, the No. 10 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft out of Michigan, suffered his original injury in the preseason, but needed another procedure on his right knee to mitigate swelling that occurred after he ramped up his physical therapy work, per head coach Kevin O’Connell. McCarthy also received a biologic injection, according to ESPN.
O’Connell said the second surgery will not impact McCarthy’s recovery timeline.
“Just with the time that we do have — he’s been doing everything we’ve asked of him (improving, getting stronger, all those things) — but we just wanted to make sure there was no cause for concern,” O’Connell said. “All reports were very positive, and he’s on the original timeline and in good shape.
“I’ve just enjoyed as his rehab has progressed, he can be in meetings and spend a little more time with us. It’s been real growth for him. He continues to ask great questions every day, and we’ll just continue on. … We feel really good about where he’s at.”
In McCarthy’s place, journeyman Sam Darnold is averaging career-highs in completion percentage (68.6%) and passing yards per game (237.9) for a 7-2 Minnesota team.
It seems like a football lifetime ago when Daniel Jones was thought to have taken a big step forward by emerging as a capable dual-threat quarterback. A five-year New York Giants playoff drought ended in 2022 and a wild-card game was won against the Minnesota Vikings. Jones posted career highs in passing yards (3,205), completion percentage (67.2%) and passer rating (92.5) while rushing for 708 yards during the 2022 season.
A strong desire to get a deal done to ensure that a franchise tag could be used on running back Saquon Barkley led to Jones signing a four-year, $160 million contract (worth up to $195 million thanks to incentives and salary escalators) with $104 million in guarantees, of which $81 million was fully guaranteed at signing in March 2023. The $40 million-per-year deal put Jones upon signing in a tie with Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott and Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford as the NFL’s seventh-highest-paid player.
That 2022 season has turned out to be fool’s gold for the Giants and Jones. The Giants rode the momentum of a surprising 6-1 start to the season, in which all of the wins were one-score games, to a 9-7-1 record. Jones regressed in 2023 before he was lost for the season in Week 9 with a torn ACL in his right knee.
The Giants quickly had a case of buyer’s remorse as general manager Joe Schoen explored moving up from the sixth overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft to take a quarterback. Instead, this pick was used on LSU wide receiver Malik Nabers to give Jones a dynamic weapon in the passing game. A primary focus in free agency was improving the offensive line. Offensive tackle Jermaine Eluemunor and offensive guard Jon Runyan Jr. were signed.
Jones has continued to regress despite the efforts to upgrade the offensive talent around him. Giants coach Brian Daboll had been adamant about Jones being the starting quarterback until Week 10’s 20-17 overtime loss to the Carolina Panthers, who entered the game with the NFL’s worst scoring defense, giving up 32.6 points per game. Heading into Week 11’s bye, Daboll was noncommittal about Jones opening the door for either Drew Lock or Tommy DeVito to start in Week 12 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
The elephant in the room is the remaining $23 million of guarantees in Jones’ contract. Jones is scheduled to make $30.5 million in 2025 consisting of a $30 million base salary and a $500,000 workout bonus. Out of Jones’ $30 million base salary, $23 million is guaranteed for injury. On the fifth day of the 2025 league year (next March 16), $12 million of this $23 million becomes fully guaranteed.
It isn’t unusual for financial considerations to become a part of the equation with embattled quarterbacks. The Las Vegas Raiders, who hadn’t yet been eliminated from playoff contention with a 6-9 record, sat down a healthy Derek Carr for the last two games in 2022. Carr’s $32.9 million 2023 base salary and $7.5 million of his $41.9 million 2024 base salary, both guaranteed for injury, were set to become fully guaranteed on Feb. 15, 2023, three days after Super Bowl LVII.
Russell Wilson, who was also healthy, got benched by the Denver Broncos for the final two games last season. His $37 million 2025 salary that was previously guaranteed for injury becoming completely secure on the fifth day of the 2024 league year this past March 17 drove the decision. The Broncos were still mathematically alive for a playoff spot with a 7-8 record.
The Giants are already in a different place than the Broncos and Raiders. It would be unprecedented for the Giants, who have lost five straight games, to make the playoffs with a 2-8 record. The Giants are in competitive race to the bottom for the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft as there are 11 teams with three wins or fewer after 10 weeks of games.
Schoen downplayed the contractual implications when asked about Jones’ status during his bye week press conference on Tuesday. “Any decisions we make moving forward as we evaluate the roster and what we’re doing for the final seven games will be football decisions,” Schoen said.
Putting the contract aside, Jones has provided plenty of ammunition for a quarterback change. Since Jones signed his contract, the Giants have only won three of the 16 games he has started.
There are 29 quarterbacks who have attempted 400 passes since the start of the 2023 season. Jones compares favorably to Desmond Ridder in conventional statistics.
The Atlanta Falcons quickly determined that Ridder, a 2022 third-round pick, wasn’t the answer at quarterback after starting for the majority of the 2023 season. Ridder was dealt to the Arizona Cardinals in March for wide receiver Rondale Moore. He was released and signed to the Cardinals’ practice squad after losing a battle to be Kyler Murray’s backup to 2023 fifth-round pick Clayton Tune. Ridder was signed by the Raiders off the Cardinals’ practice squad after Aiden O’Connell broke his right thumb seven games into the season.
Jones’ 76.6 passer rating is 28th. He is the only one of the 29 quarterbacks besides Bryce Young who has a negative touchdown passes to interception ratio. Young has thrown 15 touchdowns and 16 interceptions. Additionally, Jones’ 5.94 yards per pass attempt are only ahead of Young (5.44) and Joshua Dobbs (5.91).
It would be in the best interest of the Giants to bench Jones to avoid a potential financial bind with an injury. There are durability concerns with Jones. He has been unable to finish two of his previous five NFL seasons due to injury. Jones missed the last six games in 2021 with a neck injury in addition to last season’s ACL tear.
As a dual-threat quarterback, Jones is susceptible to extra punishment from defenders. Left tackle Andrew Thomas, the Giants’ best offensive lineman, being out of the season with a foot injury makes matters worse.
An injury where Jones isn’t able to pass a physical by next March 16 could put the Giants on the hook for the $23 million of his 2025 base salary. Logan Ryan’s situation might be instructive should this scenario arise. The defensive back had $5.5 million of his 2022 base salary fully guaranteed. An additional $3 million that was guaranteed for injury and salary cap was going to become fully guaranteed on the third day of the 2022 league year.
Ryan took all 59 of the defensive snaps in the Giants’ final game of the 2021 season. He subsequently had surgery on his right index finger. Ryan was released a day before the $3 million was completely secure. A little over a week later, Ryan signed a one-year contract for his $1.12 million league minimum salary with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, which included an injury waiver on the surgically repaired finger.
Ryan filed a grievance against the Giants over the $3 million for being released while injured. Under NFL Collective Bargaining Agreement rules, 40% of the disputed amount ($1.2 million in this case) was a 2022 salary cap charge for the Giants while the grievance was pending. The grievance was settled in 2023 with Ryan receiving $2.7 million.
The Giants had a $1.5 million 2023 cap charge to go along with the $1.2 million from 2022 relating to the grievance. It’s hard to imagine that the Giants would have settled for 90% of the amount in question if they felt there was a strong likelihood of prevailing on the merits.
The Giants will pick up $19.395 million of 2025 cap room from releasing a healthy Jones in the upcoming offseason prior to March 16 without using a post-June 1 designation. There would $22.21 million in dead money, a salary cap charge for a player no longer on a team’s roster, rather than his $41.605 million 2025 cap number.
Even if the Daboll and Schoen roll the dice by continuing to play Jones, the Giants will almost certainly have a different starting quarterback in 2025. Daboll and Schoen were recently given a vote of confidence by Giants co-owner John Mara. That could be subject to change, especially if the Giants finish worse than in 2021 when coach Joe Judge was fired and general manager Dave Gettleman retired after a 4-13 season, which led to their hiring.
The Chicago Bears parted ways with offensive coordinator Shane Waldron this week, as his unit has been one of the worst in the league through 10 weeks. The Bears haven’t scored a touchdown in two games, and rank bottom three in yards per play (4.3), third down percentage (28.7%) and sacks allowed (38).
Firing Waldron is not going to solve all the Bears’ issues, but it’s clear the offense wasn’t living up to expectations. On Wednesday, some of Chicago’s receivers addressed the big move.
D.J. Moore told reporters that on-the-fly adjustments were a problem with Waldon. He wanted to wait until halftime instead of addressing an issue in the moment.
“I want to say probably when we want to call it’s probably like a drive too late or like we wanted to make adjustments and we just wait till halftime to make it and then we don’t get the same looks …” Moore said, via ESPN.
Keenan Allen had an interesting quote, saying Waldron was “too nice,” and wasn’t the type to hold people accountable.
“I would say just probably he was too nice of a guy,” Allen said, via The Chicago Tribune. “I think during OTAs, training camp, he kind of fell into a trap of letting things go, not holding people accountable. Obviously those things lead to a slippery slope.”
There have been multiple reports this season indicating players had raised issues with Waldron behind closed doors. The offensive coordinator even met with the “team’s leadership council” in September after a loss to the Indianapolis Colts to talk about the offense at large, per ESPN. Ultimately, not much changed, which is why head coach Matt Eberflus made the move he did.
“They just want to do more. They just want to do more,” Eberflus said, via ESPN. “They want to be more productive. More effective. Score points for our football team. Just do more as a group and then more individually in terms of helping the group … to me it was really, really good to see that they really wanted to get better. And it just didn’t happen in a timely fashion.”
